Is the long-term mortality similar in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia?

Introduction: There are no data on the association of type of pneumonia and long-term mortality by the type of pneumonia (COVID-19 or community-acquired pneumonia [CAP]) on long-term mortality after an adjustment for potential confounding variables. We aimed to assess the type of pneumonia and risk factors for long-term mortality in patients who were hospitalized in conventional ward and later discharged. Methods: Retrospective analysis of two prospective and multicentre cohorts of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and CAP. The main outcome under study was 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients in conventional ward and later discharged. We adjusted a Bayesian logistic regression model to assess associations between the type of pneumonia and 1-year mortality controlling for confounders. Results: The study included a total of 1,693 and 2,374 discharged patients in the COVID-19 and CAP cohorts, respectively. Of these, 1,525 (90.1%) and 2,249 (95%) patients underwent analysis. Until 1-year follow-up, 69 (4.5%) and 148 (6.6%) patients from the COVID-19 and CAP cohorts, respectively, died (p = 0.008). However, the Bayesian model showed a low probability of effect (PE) of finding relevant differences in long-term mortality between CAP and COVID-19 (odds ratio 1.127, 95% credibility interval 0.862-1.591; PE = 0.774). Conclusion: COVID-19 and CAP have similar long-term mortality after adjusting for potential confounders.

Long-term Mortality in Community-acquired Pneumonia / Mortalidad a largo plazo de la neumonía adquirida en la comunidad

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¿Dónde tratar a los pacientes diagnosticados de neumonía adquirida en la comunidad? / No disponible

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Incidencia longitudinal de la tuberculosis en una cohorte de contactos: factores asociados a la enfermedad / Longitudinal incidence of tuberculosis in a cohort of contacts: factors associated with the disease

Objetivo: Conocer la incidencia de tuberculosis (TB) en una cohorte de contactos y analizar las variables asociadas a la enfermedad. Métodos: Se ha efectuado un análisis prospectivo de los estudios de contactos (EC) realizados en un área sanitaria del País Vasco del 1 de enero de 1995 al 31 de diciembre de 2004. La variable dependiente fue el número de casos de TB detectados entre los contactos. Las variables independientes fueron la edad, el sexo, la prueba de la tuberculina (PT) y el grado de contacto, y en los casos índice, la localización de la TB y la baciloscopia del esputo. Resultados: De los 5.444 contactos de 596 pacientes con TB que se estudiaron, se encontraron 66 casos secundarios de TB (40 en el momento del EC y 26 en el período posterior), la mayoría de ellos (73%) durante el primer año. El análisis multivariante demostró una relación significativa entre la detección de casos secundarios y las siguientes variables: contacto íntimo (odds ratio [OR] = 3,05; intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95%, 1,75-5,31), baciloscopia positiva (OR = 8,54; IC del 95%, 2,06-35,43), PT de 10 mm o mayor (OR = 10,18; IC del 95%, 4,27-24,26) y edad inferior a 30 años (OR = 3,35; IC del 95%, 1,88-5,98). El modelo predictivo final que se obtuvo utilizando estas 3 variables alcanzó una sensibilidad del 77,4%, una especificidad del 80,3% y un área bajo la curva de 0,83 (IC del 95%, 0,78-0,88). Conclusiones: El EC es una estrategia válida para la detección de nuevos casos de TB. La intervención profiláctica debería realizarse de forma precoz y dirigirse prioritariamente a los contactos jóvenes de pacientes bacilíferos, utilizando como referencia una PT de 10 mm o mayor

Objective: To investigate the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in a cohort of contacts and to analyze the variables associated with the disease. Methods: A prospective analysis was undertaken of all the contact investigations carried out in a health district in the Basque Country in northern Spain between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2004. The dependent variable was the number of cases of TB detected among the contacts. Independent variables were age, sex, tuberculin skin test result, and the degree of contact. In index cases, additional variables were the site of the disease and smear test result. Results: Analysis of 5444 contacts of 596 patients with TB yielded 66 secondary cases of TB (40 at the time of the contact investigation and 26 at a later stage); the majority (73%) developed the disease within 12 months. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant relationship between the detection of secondary cases and the following variables: close contact (odds ratio [OR], 3.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-5.31), positive smear test (OR, 8.54; 95% CI, 2.06-35.43), induration of 10 mm or larger (OR, 10.18; 95% CI, 4.27-24.26), and age under 30 years (OR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.88-5.98). The final predictive model constructed on the basis of these 3 variables had a sensitivity of 77.4%, a specificity of 80.3%, and an area under the curve of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.88). Conclusions: The contact investigation is a valid strategy for the detection of new cases of TB. Prophylactic treatment should be implemented at an early stage and priority should be given to young contacts of smear positive patients using an induration size of 10 mm or more as a reference